martedì 4 marzo 2008

An Austrian Purge

I was reading the telegraph, one of the few newspapers that tell the truth about the current economic situation and i stumbled on this sentence: "Leverage is too extreme. Bank capital is too eroded. Monetary traction eludes the Fed. An "Austrian" purge is under way."
Someone who know a little about the austrian economics school can easily translate that. It became somenthing like :"We are doomed! doomed! Doooooooooooomed!"
I have to admit that i'm pretty scared. The world economy is going in the toilet. The chart below show that we are far from the peak in the mortage resets

The consumer confidence index is sinking like the titanic meaning that american consumers are not spending anymore because they don't believe in a positive future for the economy. Consumer spending makes about 70% of US GDP.



Helicopter Ben is talking about recession. When the FED chairman start saying the R word i began to be afraid of the D word (i'm a little depress anyway).
So what exactly is an austrian purge?
Immagine a world where a bunch of crazy, fraudolent, sorcerer apprentices gather togheter creating money and money surrogates in excessive quantities. This monetary mass inflate the stock market, the real estate market and the derivatives market generating a lot of paper with no real value. The problem is that everybody in the market think otherwise because someone else they all trust is saying "this paper is soooooo good and valuable".
Guess what: that is a fucking lie!
The name of the liar? Moody, Standar & Poors and Finch.
One fine day of July a couple of funds goes bust and everyone start to realize the scam. Then, slowly, the Purge began. The mass of useless paper start to dissapear. The banks and hedge funds couldn't sell it to anyone and are forced to take the losses. It's like a giant pump that suck all the credit and destroy it. This is very important. The credit is destroyed but the debt remain hence the insolvency of many financial actors.
What the telegraph mean whith purge is the other innominable D word.
Deflation!
A really huge one!

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